How to Save Permafrost Monitoring Against Disasters

In May 2020, the city of Norilsk was the site of the largest diesel spill disaster in the polar Arctic. An expert investigation revealed that human error was not solely to blame, but also the company Nornickel’s lack of up-to-date information on the actual scale of permafrost thawing. Since then, the authorities have promised to establish a system to monitor soil thawing, and yet the risk of new accidents remains ever-present. Arctida documents what’s at stake with the once “eternally” frozen grounds, and why residents of the Arctic and businesses are at risk of facing new disasters.

Russia’s Arctic stands atop a composition of sediment that is two-thirds permafrost—ground that has remained frozen for over three consecutive years. However, due to the climate crisis fueled by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, these frozen soils are starting to thaw, threatening the stability of buildings and industrial facilities. According to data from the Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East and Arctic, up to 50% of buildings in some Arctic settlements have already been deformed.

Roshydromet (Russia's Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring) warns that the load-bearing capacity of pile foundations in this region has fallen across the board by 20-40%, with further deterioration expected in the coming years. According to health and safety standards, this indicator should not fall below 40%. The region accounts for more than 80% of Russia's natural (fossil) gas production and 17% of its oil. Soil deformation beneath industrial facilities could lead to environmental disasters, such as those seen in Norilsk, economic losses, and even loss of life.

As the planet continues to warm, with 2023 becoming the hottest year on record and global temperatures 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels, Russia has observed a widespread increase in the depth of permafrost thaw during the warm season: in some areas, by several tens of centimeters compared to 2022. Scientists note a persistent trend of permafrost melting, occurring most rapidly in the European North of Russia, the Polar Urals, and the western regions of Western Siberia.

The extent of future permafrost loss will depend on the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions that humanity chooses this century—and the resulting warming.

According to Roshydromet’s forecast, under moderate emissions scenarios, the area of permafrost in Russia could shrink by more than 20% by the middle of the 21st century compared to the baseline period of 1995–2014; under very high emissions scenarios, up to nearly 30%. By the end of the century, permafrost loss is expected to amount to around 40% and 72% under moderate and high emissions scenarios, respectively.

With respect to global conditions, if high emissions persist, more than 90% of the world’s permafrost could disappear by the end of the century, according to a study by an international team of scientists. The exceptions would be the highlands of Eastern Siberia, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and the northernmost parts of Greenland.

КАРТА

Figure 1.2.2.17 Area occupied by permafrost in the upper (3.3 m) soil layer by the middle (a, c) and the end (b, d) of the 21st century, based on calculations using an ensemble of 21 climate models for two scenarios: SSP2-4.5 (a, b) and SSP5-8.5 (c, d).

Source: Roshydrome

Alongside efforts to tackle the root cause of thawing by reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, engineers and scientists have developed measures to mitigate its symptoms. These include solutions for maintaining infrastructure in thawing permafrost conditions: removing ice-rich soil, cooling the ground using thermosiphons (passive heat exchangers), and designing adjustable structures, such as piles, that can be modified as the ground sinks or swells.

"Refrigerators" in the Arctic are already in use today—they literally freeze the ground to prevent buildings from shifting. According to Dmitry Artyukhov, governor of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO), tens of millions of rubles are spent annually on cooling systems beneath buildings.

Russian researchers estimate that by 2050, maintaining buildings and infrastructure in the Arctic zone will require about $105 billion. The largest expenditures will be in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO) ($52.3 billion) and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) ($21.3 billion). For comparison, the annual budget expenditures of YNAO and Sakha are currently around $4 billion and $3.5 billion, respectively.

Meanwhile, the total value of assets built on thawing permafrost is estimated at $301.1 billion. In some cases, maintaining infrastructure may prove economically unfeasible. However, making such decisions requires access to up-to-date soil monitoring data.

Effective monitoring requires observing soil conditions at various locations and analyzing this data to identify trends and make predictions. Currently, monitoring is conducted in some cities and settlements, along major pipelines, and at other key infrastructure sites.

However, the existing network does not cover all potentially hazardous areas. Additionally, data from monitoring stations is not integrated into a unified system.

This prevents experts from forming a reliable picture of temperature changes and soil properties across Russia.

The international scientific community also warns about significant gaps in understanding global climate change, particularly permafrost thawing, due to Russia's exclusion from scientific collaboration as a result of sanctions. For instance, data from Russian monitoring stations have been excluded from INTERACT (International Network for Terrestrial Research and Monitoring in the Arctic), which studies changes in Arctic ecosystems. Western countries have also paused funding and collaboration on projects involving Russia. In October, a NATO representative claimed that Russia is "withholding" climate data from its side as well.

In 2022, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the United States suspended their work in the Arctic Council—an intergovernmental body coordinating environmental protection and scientific research in the Arctic. In February, the Council

decided to resume

online meetings of working groups. However, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova

claimed

that this activity remains "limited" and said it is "premature to talk about the full normalization of the Arctic Council's work."